Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with South Carolina. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas| Auburn| Florida| Georgia| Kentucky| LSU| Mizzou| Mississippi State| Oklahoma |Ole Miss
* * * * * * *
If I had a nickel for every time I heard the word “momentum,” I could’ve paid for sellout crowds at Williams-Brice Stadium.
That was during the day that I spent with Shane Beamer in Nashville at 2023 SEC Media Days. Every interview room he went into, he was asked about the late-season momentum his team had after upsetting Tennessee and Clemson to close the 2022 regular season.
“How much momentum did that give your program?”
Beamer didn’t answer that question in the way that many probably expected. He spoke about how beneficial it was to show boosters that they made serious progress in Year 2, and those conversations were much easier to have after the way the Gameco*cks finished the season (he also got a $4 million raise to get to $6.5 million annually).
But in terms of season-to-season momentum, Beamer didn’t suggest that late-season victories guaranteed anything more than that. He communicated that 2023 was a new season, and that while he hoped to build on that, there would be a new set of challenges that his squad would have to overcome in Year 3.
He couldn’t have been more right about that.
A 3-win regression meant that South Carolina missed out on a bowl berth. You could point to injuries on offense — the Gameco*cks were forced to start 2 true freshmen on the line — and the struggles in the run game (on both sides of the ball) as major factors in that. After the 2022 squad recorded 7 non-offensive touchdowns, “Beamer Ball” also wasn’t as evident with just 2 non-offensive touchdowns in 2023.
Go figure that all of that occurred while Spencer Rattler continued his resurgence while Xavier Legette turned into a first-round receiver prospect. Those 2 were a major reason the Gameco*cks even had a shot to clinch bowl eligibility against Clemson. But unlike the previous year, that wasn’t in the cards.
It’s safe to say that “momentum” wasn’t in the cards for a South Carolina squad that only beat 1 Power 5 bowl team (Kentucky). So what’s in the cards for 2024?
Let’s dig into it with South Carolina’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
LaNorris Sellers, you’re up
The decision to trust Sellers could be a defining one in the Beamer era. By “trust,” I mean not dipping into the portal like Beamer did 2 years earlier with Rattler. Well, Robby Ashford was a portal addition after he spent the past 2 seasons at Auburn, but he wasn’t brought in as anything more than a project/insurance policy/offensive wrinkle in the run game.
Sellers’ time is now. So what will that look like? It depends. The redshirt freshman is green in terms of college experience. His lone pass attempts in his true freshman season came against FCS Furman. Granted, 2 of them went for touchdowns. How much that mattered in South Carolina’s trust in Sellers is debatable.
What’s not debatable is that he has big shoes to fill. The win-loss record might not have shown it, but Rattler progressed under OC Dowell Loggains. The trust in Sellers is trust in Loggains as a QB developer. Say what you want about him as a schemer, but Loggains’ Year 1 in Columbia showed that he was capable of fine-tuning a quarterback’s mechanics.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Sellers should get to operate behind a more experienced line after last year’s unit was thrown into the fire. His legs will also add an element that wasn’t part of the Rattler-led South Carolina offense. He was a 1,300-yard rusher as a high school senior at South Florence (SC), where he led the program to a 4A state title.
Two years later, Sellers’ task won’t be leading South Carolina to an SEC title or earning All-SEC honors (no South Carolina QB has done that at season’s end). It’ll be navigating the rigors of a brutal schedule as the new face of the offense.
Welcome to the big time.
Nyck Harbor and Rocket Sanders … who’s ready for takeoff?
Any world in which South Carolina has a bounce-back season involves Harbor and/or Sanders becoming studs. To be fair, Sanders already showed he could become a stud back in 2022 when he finished No. 9 in FBS in scrimmage yards after a breakout season at Arkansas. A lost 2023 season with injuries and a subsequent transfer portal decision landed him in Columbia, where South Carolina is desperate to find an answer at running back.
In the Beamer era, the Gameco*cks:
- A) Haven’t had an 800-yard rusher
- B) Finished between No. 93-129 in FBS in rushing yards/game
- C) Have yet to average 4 yards/carry for a season
- D) Averaged 3.37 yards/carry vs. SEC competition
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
That’s a problem. That’s what Sanders was brought in to turn around. Much of that will depend on the improvement of the aforementioned offensive line. Some continuity there would go a long way, as would Sanders staying healthy. He couldn’t stay on the field in 2023, and it didn’t quiet those concerns when he spent the offseason working his way back from a shoulder injury he suffered last November. His ability to return healthy and get back to being a game-changing feature back is essential.
You could say the same thing about Harbor, who has more No. 1 rankings on Bruce Feldman’s annual “Freaks” list (2) than he has career touchdowns (1). Harbor earned the first back-to-back No. 1 ranking in 20 years of Feldman’s list because a 6-5, 242-pound guy who runs a 10.1-second 100 is as freaky as it gets.
The next step for South Carolina is making Harbor a staple of the offense after a relatively quiet 12-catch, 195-yard true freshman season. Harbor’s spring with the Gameco*cks’ track team didn’t necessarily make for an offseason of buzz, but more relevant is that he develops as a route-runner to open things up for Sellers and the Gameco*ck offense. The top-end speed won’t be an issue. Consistently getting separation and winning 1-on-1s in the intermediate passing game will determine Harbor’s 2024 season.
If Harbor and Sanders can both answer some crucial offseason questions, South Carolina could be must-see TV.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Old Dominion (W)
This is set up perfectly for Nick Emmanwori to do something freakish. Maybe he hurdles a running back to get a sack. Perhaps he picks off a pass and hurdles someone during the return. Maybe he forces a fumble while a ball-carrier attempts to hurdle him. All I know is, a hurdle will be involved and a comfortable South Carolina win will be had.
Week 2: at Kentucky (W)
Through 3 seasons, Beamer already has more victories against Mark Stoops (2) than Will Muschamp (1) had in 5 seasons. Say what you want about the Beamer-Stoops beef. This is when Kentucky’s backfield depth is tested and South Carolina’s improvement in the ground game takes shape. Sanders takes off early and UK’s offense has some 2023 vibes. Brock Vandagriff struggles to get on the same page as his pass-catchers, which results in a late interception that closes out a gritty road win for South Carolina.
Week 3: vs. LSU (L)
As my former Saturday Down South Podcast co-host Chris Marler would say, a noon ET kick at Williams-Brice Stadium in mid-September will be the hottest place on Earth. But a week after a physical game against Kentucky, it’s South Carolina that can’t stand the heat. The Gameco*cks struggle to get pressure on Garrett Nussmeier, who picks apart the Gameco*cks’ secondary with a 21-point third quarter. That’s too much to overcome for a Sellers-led offense that’s not ready to overcome significant deficits.
Week 4: vs. Akron (W)
Never sleep on Joe Moorhead … unless he’s still trying to establish an offensive identity at a place like Akron. South Carolina is propelled to a 4-touchdown victory by Jared Brown’s first 100-yard day in a Gameco*ck uniform.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Ole Miss (L)
There will be moments in which Sellers looks like the best player on the field and Ole Miss is in over its head in its first SEC road trip of the season. Perhaps it’s looking ahead to LSU or perhaps its just that South Carolina is a difficult place to play, but whatever the case, a 4-quarter game ensues. On the road, it’s Ulysses Bentley IV who steps up for Ole Miss. In his best day since transferring from SMU, Bentley scores a rushing and a receiving touchdown in the second half to prevent another classic Beamer home upset.
Week 7: at Alabama (L)
The Gameco*cks won’t be able capitalize on Alabama’s biggest perceived weakness — the secondary. Go figure that the past 2 South Carolina teams might have been better suited to do that. Then again, the past 2 South Carolina teams struggled in the ground game (both sides). The Gameco*cks’ problem will be finding answers to slow down Kalen DeBoer’s offense. The first big Ryan Williams game highlights a comfortable Alabama victory.
Week 8: at Oklahoma (L)
It might not get the Josh Heupel-Oklahoma billing, but Beamer’s return to Norman will be a significant storyline. For Oklahoma, it’s a bounce-back matchup after the Texas loss. It’s an opportunity for Brent Venables’ defense to frustrate a young, developing quarterback. Woodi Washington and Billy Bowman pick off Sellers passes in what turns into an early blowout. The Gameco*cks fail to find any sort of offensive rhythm in a 35-10 Oklahoma victory.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: vs. Texas A&M (W)
A&M’s road woes will resurface while South Carolina will remind us all that nobody is safe in Williams-Brice. Why? Fresh off a bye, the Gameco*cks look like a well-rested group that finally puts 4 quarters together on offense. A Sanders-heavy approach works like a charm to give South Carolina an early lead that it doesn’t look back on. A 45-pass attempt day for Conner Weigman leads to South Carolina taking advantage of the 1-dimensional A&M offense. The Gameco*cks pick up a huge win to keep bowl hopes alive.
Week 11: at Vanderbilt (W)
There are a ton of similarities between Emmanwori and CJ Taylor. Both often look like do-it-all players for defenses that need about 10 more guys like them. But on this day, Tonka Hemingway does his best Emmanwori imitation by feasting on the Vanderbilt offensive line. Even bringing in Nate Johnson doesn’t slow down Hemingway and the Gameco*cks’ defensive line, which fuels its second consecutive winning effort.
Week 12: vs. Mizzou (L)
With Brady Cook on the shelf after suffering the leg injury against Oklahoma, Eli Drinkwitz turns to Arizona State/Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne. Instead of it being an opportunity for Beamer to get over the hump against Mizzou, Pyne leads the Tigers to a hard-fought road victory to clinch bowl eligibility and, more important, stop a 3-game losing streak.
Week 13: vs. Wofford (W)
A bowl berth-clinching victory provides a full Ashford experience that reminds us all how fun he could’ve been if he had played college football 20 years ago.
Week 14: at Clemson (L)
The lack of proven pass-catchers becomes a central theme with the Gameco*cks’ struggles, and fittingly, it surfaces at Clemson. Other than a Joshua Simon score in the red zone, Sellers spends the day throwing to covered receivers.
2024 Projection: 6-6 (3-5), 13th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
Reality is that when you’re a 5-win team and half the schedule is against teams that won at least 9 games last year, yeah, improvement isn’t imminent. It’s earned. To get back on track in Year 4 of the Beamer era would not just mean South Carolina catches a team or 2 by surprise. It would mean that the Gameco*cks are actually favored to win some of these games and it doesn’t feel like it’s pulling off an upset in non-Vanderbilt SEC games.
Sure, some of that could still be “Beamer Ball” playing out. If we see Kai Kroger throw a touchdown pass or JuJu McDowell and Luke Doty scoring in unique ways, it would bring back some of the juice that last year’s team lacked.
But if South Carolina wants to get out of that double-digit-projection territory in the SEC — that’s order of finish and not wins — then it’ll need to start doing the boring things better. On both sides of the ball, the run game woes have to turn around. South Carolina needs to scheme better on offense and maximize Harbor’s skill set. There needs to be 4-quarter performances on the road instead of just at Williams-Brice.
That’s what’ll determine the rest of the Beamer era. There’s a world in which a disastrous Year 4 results in the Gameco*cks moving on from Beamer, who has 3 more years left on his contract after 2024 and would be owed around $13 million if he’s fired without cause (65% of the remaining contract). That’s reality for any SEC coach who suffers 2 disappointing seasons in a row.
If there was ever a time for Beamer to get some momentum back, now is it.
